Republican Race Clear as Mud after Iowa
Posted by Bobby Eberle
January 4, 2008 at 7:41 am


The results are in, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was the big winner in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday. Garnering 34% of the vote, Huckabee outpaced all other Republican contenders, but rather than help clarify the race to the Republican presidential nomination, the win and the results of the other Republican candidates only helped muddy the field.

Buoyed by overwhelming support from evangelicals, Huckabee scored the win that he needed. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney finished second with 25% of the vote, followed by Sen. John McCain and former Sen. Fred Thompson, each with 13%. Now, the candidates move to New Hampshire which will hold its primary on January 8. Following Iowa's results, the dynamics and expectations for New Hampshire have changed dramatically.


Huckabee is definitely the surprise candidate of any Republican or Democrat in the race for the White House. This past summer, he was on no one's radar screen and was near the bottom of the polls. But his performance in the debates and other public events and his building following among Christian conservatives helped turned the tide. Romney, who was expected to win in Iowa, saw his lead shrink in recent weeks. His second-place finish is directly due to the influx of evangelicals into the caucuses... a group who turned away from Romney and went for Huckabee.

As noted in the Washington Post, participation in the Iowa caucuses was at an all-time high. Over 125,000 caucusgoers participating, far out-distancing the previous record of 87,000 voters. According to the Post report, "Sixty percent of Republican caucusgoers described themselves as evangelicals, according to entrance polls. Those voters went for Huckabee over Romney by more than 2 to 1."

The results are more than interesting, and they beg the question, "What are evangelicals looking for and why did they turn to Huckabee?" As I wrote yesterday, some of the most important issues for me and other conservatives are "smaller government, lower taxes, and secure borders." On these issues -- core issues for conservatives -- Huckabee simply does not warrant the support he has received.

Huckabee has been blasted by the conservative Club for Growth on his tax and big government record:

"Over the past ten months, Governor Huckabee's embrace of his liberal economic record as governor and his populist, protectionist rhetoric on the campaign trail has only confirmed the Club for Growth's original assessment," said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. "Huckabee himself admits that he is a ‘different kind of Republican,' a code word for more government involvement, less personal freedom, and greater dependence on government bureaucrats."

Conservative icon Richard Viguerie, in a statement released after the Iowa caucuses, says, "Mike Huckabee's victory in the Iowa caucuses is bad news for the Republican Party. Mike Huckabee is a Christian socialist. He is a good man, but with a Big Government heart. He is the most liberal of all the Republican presidential candidates on economic issues. Huckabee's approach to every problem or perceived problem is to pass a law and launch another government program."

And then there is the illegal immigration issue. An analysis of the candidates' record on illegal immigration by Numbers USA gives Huckabee a "bad" in the category "Assessment of Past Immigration Actions in Political Office." In contrast, both Romney and Rep. Ron Paul received marks of "good," and Reps. Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter received marks of "excellent."

I sincerely hope that evangelicals are looking at more than the fact that Huckabee is Baptist minister, but the results in Iowa, given the well documented records of all the Republican candidates are surprising. But then again, it's hard to say how much of the record was really known. Huckabee has enjoyed being spared intense review of his record until just the past few weeks.

Romney's second-place finish means that a New Hampshire victory is nearly essential. He banked on a more traditional "momentum" strategy, so not winning Iowa was definitely a set back. In New Hampshire, he and McCain are battling for the top spot. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is in third place in most polls, followed by Huckabee, Paul, and Thompson. Romney needs a big finish to generate some momentum for the South Carolina primary on January 19. In that race, Huckabee is leading thanks again to strong evangelical support. Romney is polling second followed by Thompson, McCain, Giuliani, and Paul. If Romney can't generate some wins in the next few weeks, the chances for his nomination decrease significantly.

Giuliani, who leads most national polls, did not even campaign in Iowa. In fact, his last event prior to the Iowa caucuses was in Florida. So, his finishing sixth in Iowa is no surprise. His strategy, however, is something different and a huge gamble, to say the least. He has written-off the early state contests in favor of a strong showing in the larger states such as Florida and then on Super Tuesday (February 5). Will the strategy work? It remains to be seen, but by not coming out strongly and showing some results early, it could affect fundraising and the ability to come on strong in so many states.

Thompson is also banking on support later on and is putting his focus on South Carolina. A win there could generate some momentum for him. McCain's finish in Iowa and a strong finish in New Hampshire could give him an even larger boost than he has seen recently. He has definitely risen in recent weeks and a win in New Hampshire could put him back in the mix. However, McCain has just been on the opposite side of too many issues that are important to conservatives (judges, taxes, illegal immigration) for him to get the nomination.

As for Ron Paul, I'm not sure what he's doing with his $20 million that he raised last quarter. Consistently polling fifth in Iowa polls, the congressman finished fifth. For the last two days, GOPUSA ran an unscientific web poll, asking web site visitors to indicate who they thought would win in Iowa. As with many online polls on GOPUSA and other web sites, Ron Paul supporters hit the poll in force. Again, the poll did not ask which candidate they supported, but rather, which candidate they thought would win in Iowa. Paul finished first with 34%. Romney was in second with 24% followed by Huckabee with 23%.

Again and again and again, I receive e-mails from Paul supporters saying that the system is rigged and polls don't indicate what's really going on. They say things like, "Paul supporters are more tech-savy. They use cell phones not land lines, so they can't be polled." However, the polls indicated a fifth place finish, and that's what happened. The finish was not good for Ron Paul no matter how you spin it.

The race for the Republican nomination is still wide open. I continue to hope that once the process is complete, we will all rally around the nominee and help defeat the Democrat. I also hope that during the process, voters will review the records of the candidates and make decisions based on the facts.

The Loft